Dems turning more GOP Senate strongholds into midterm battlegrounds (axios.com)

Ten weeks from Election Day, the Senate battlefield is sprawling, scattered — and stretching deep into Trump country . Why it matters: In a normal year, Republicans wouldn't think twice about Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Nebraska or Texas. This isn't a normal year. Republicans expect all six states to revert to their MAGA mean. But they're not betting on it. The fact that they're still in play has turned the midterms into a game of chess, giving Democrats more openings to attack — and leaving Republicans with more pieces to defend. What we're hearing: While you've been at the beach, we've been at the bar talking to operatives in both parties. Here's what we're hearing: Democrats are within striking distance in Iowa , Alaska and Texas . They're longer shots in Mississippi and Kansas, while an independent candidate in Nebraska refuses to go away. Democrats' clearest path to 51 starts with holding Michigan and picking up North Carolina and Ohio. Maine is probably next on their list. Then they need just one more. Driving the news: As of Thursday afternoon, the Texas and Iowa Senate races are rated as "toss-ups" by Cook Political Report. They were "lean Republican" previously. That makes six GOP seats that are now toss-ups or lean Democratic. Ohio: Trump won the once quintessential battleground the past three elections, and its governor and senators are all Republicans. But former Sen. Sherrod Brown is mounting a comeback under two very different conditions from 2024: Trump isn't on the ballot and crypto PACs aren't bludgeoning him with $40 million (yet). Brown led Husted 53% to 45% in a recent Fox News survey — a margin unchanged since June. One major issue that could cost Husted the election: AI data centers . Alaska: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) worked hard to recruit former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who has already won statewide twice. Complicating matters for GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, there's another Dan Sullivan on the ballot. Peltola is running neck-and-neck with Sen. Sullivan in a state where ranked-choice voting can reward candidates with crossover appeal — a formula she used to win her House seat in 2022. Senate Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Schumer, has already reserved $12 million in TV and digital ads. Iowa: A Democrat hasn't won an Iowa presidential or Senate race since then-President Obama in 2012. But the farm state has been battered by soaring fertilizer and diesel costs as well as Trump's tariffs, putting Republicans on defense. Schumer got a head start with his preferred candidate in state Rep. Josh Turek. Adding to Democratic enthusiasm is gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand, whose strength at the top of the ticket could produce coattails. SMP is in for $30 million. Texas: The state has broken Democrats' hearts so many times it deserves its own Ella Fitzgerald song. But Trump's Hispanic support in the Rio Grande Valley has fallen off, and Republicans dropped close to $20 million in negative ads on Attorn